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Prediction by the Numbers

Prediction by the Numbers

Prediction by the Numbers

Predictions underlie nearly every aspect of our lives, from sports, politics, and medical decisions to the morning commute. With the explosion of digital technology, the internet, and “big data,” the science of forecasting is flourishing. But why do some predictions succeed spectacularly while others fail abysmally? And how can we find meaningful patterns amidst chaos and uncertainty?
S45 E6 Length 53:31 Premiere: 1.24.18

Program Details

NOVA

About NOVA

NOVA brings you stories from the frontlines of science and engineering, answering the big questions of today and tomorrow, from how our ancestors lived, to whether parallel universes exist, to how technology will transform our lives. Visit the official website to watch full-length documentaries, or explore our world through short-form video, on our digital publication NOVA Next.

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Decoding da Vinci - S46 E21

Discover how Leonardo da Vinci used science, from human dissections to innovative painting techniques, to create his legendary artwork. Learn why Mona Lisa's smile is so captivating - and what it took to create it.

  • Thursday January 21, 2021 1:00 pm ET on KET
  • Thursday January 21, 2021 12:00 pm CT on KET
  • Friday January 22, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
  • Friday January 22, 2021 1:00 am CT on KET
  • Sunday January 24, 2021 7:00 pm ET on KET2
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  • Tuesday January 26, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
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Forgotten Genius - S34 E3

Percy Julian overcame numerous obstacles to become a world-class scientist, a self-made millionaire, and a civil rights pioneer.

  • Wednesday January 27, 2021 9:00 pm ET on KET
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  • Friday January 29, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
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Great Cathedral Mystery - S41 E5

Using period tools and techniques, bricklayers build a mini version of the Duomo in Florence.

  • Sunday January 31, 2021 7:00 pm ET on KET2
  • Sunday January 31, 2021 6:00 pm CT on KET2
  • Tuesday February 2, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
  • Tuesday February 2, 2021 2:00 am CT on KET2

Beyond the Elements - Reactions

Discover the chemical reactions that transform our world, including one that enables us to feed billions, but when reversed, is explosive. And lock-and-key molecules that put the heat in hot peppers or make deadly venoms useful to medicine.

  • Wednesday February 3, 2021 9:00 pm ET on KET
  • Wednesday February 3, 2021 8:00 pm CT on KET
  • Friday February 5, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
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  • Friday February 5, 2021 12:00 pm ET on KET
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  • Sunday February 7, 2021 7:00 pm ET on KET2
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  • Tuesday February 9, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
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Beyond the Elements - Indestructible

As the environmental impact of the quest for durability becomes clear, scientists look for ways to maintain utility but minimize harm.

  • Wednesday February 10, 2021 9:00 pm ET on KET
  • Wednesday February 10, 2021 8:00 pm CT on KET
  • Friday February 12, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
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  • Sunday February 14, 2021 7:00 pm ET on KET2
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  • Tuesday February 16, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
  • Tuesday February 16, 2021 2:00 am CT on KET2

Beyond the Elements - Life

Discover molecules that allowed life on Earth to begin and thrive and how scientists use evolution in chemistry.

  • Wednesday February 17, 2021 9:00 pm ET on KET
  • Wednesday February 17, 2021 8:00 pm CT on KET
  • Friday February 19, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
  • Friday February 19, 2021 1:00 am CT on KET
  • Friday February 19, 2021 12:00 pm ET on KET
  • Friday February 19, 2021 11:00 am CT on KET
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Secrets In Our DNA

  • Tuesday January 19, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
  • Tuesday January 19, 2021 2:00 am CT on KET2
  • Sunday January 17, 2021 7:00 pm ET on KET2
  • Sunday January 17, 2021 6:00 pm CT on KET2
  • Friday January 15, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
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  • Thursday January 14, 2021 1:00 pm ET on KET
  • Thursday January 14, 2021 12:00 pm CT on KET
  • Wednesday January 13, 2021 9:00 pm ET on KET
  • Wednesday January 13, 2021 8:00 pm CT on KET

Prediction by the Numbers - S45 E6

  • Tuesday January 12, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
  • Tuesday January 12, 2021 2:00 am CT on KET2
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  • Thursday January 7, 2021 1:00 pm ET on KET
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The Impossible Flight - S45 E3

  • Tuesday January 5, 2021 3:00 am ET on KET2
  • Tuesday January 5, 2021 2:00 am CT on KET2
  • Friday January 1, 2021 2:00 am ET on KET
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Decoding the Great Pyramid - S46 E4

  • Sunday January 3, 2021 7:00 pm ET on KET2
  • Sunday January 3, 2021 6:00 pm CT on KET2

Pluto and Beyond - S46 E1

  • Tuesday December 29, 2020 3:00 am ET on KET2
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  • Wednesday December 23, 2020 8:00 pm CT on KET

Einstein's Quantum Riddle - S46 E2

  • Tuesday December 22, 2020 3:00 am ET on KET2
  • Tuesday December 22, 2020 2:00 am CT on KET2
  • Sunday December 20, 2020 7:00 pm ET on KET2
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Top

Season 45 Episodes

NOVA Wonders What's the Universe Made Of?

S45 E106 Length 53:11 Premiere Date 5.30.18

NOVA Wonders Can We Make Life?

S45 E105 Length 53:46 Premiere Date 5.23.18

NOVA Wonders Can We Build a Brain?

S45 E104 Length 53:43 Premiere Date 5.16.18

NOVA Wonders Are We Alone?

S45 E103 Length 53:38 Premiere Date 5.9.18

NOVA Wonders What's Living in You?

S45 E102 Length 53:40 Premiere Date 5.2.18

NOVA Wonders What Are Animals Saying?

S45 E101 Length 52:57 Premiere Date 4.25.18

World's Fastest Animal

S45 E17 Length 53:04 Premiere Date 11.21.18

Operation Bridge Rescue

S45 E16 Length 53:30 Premiere Date 9.19.18

Last B-24

S45 E15 Length 53:40 Premiere Date 10.29.18

Thai Cave Rescue

S45 E14 Length 53:34 Premiere Date 10.29.18

Flying Supersonic

S45 E13 Length 53:29 Premiere Date 10.9.18

Addiction

S45 E12 Length 53:45 Premiere Date 9.25.18

Volcano on the Brink

S45 E11 Length 53:37 Premiere Date 9.19.18

Volcano on Fire

S45 E10 Length 53:37 Premiere Date 9.19.18

Transplanting Hope

S45 E9 Length 53:43 Premiere Date 8.28.18

Rise of the Superstorms

S45 E8 Length 53:26 Premiere Date 6.14.18

Decoding the Weather Machine

S45 E7 Length 1:53:21 Premiere Date 3.9.18

Prediction by the Numbers

S45 E6 Length 53:31 Premiere Date 1.24.18

Great Escape at Dunkirk

S45 E5 Length 52:59 Premiere Date 1.24.18

First Face of America

S45 E4 Length 53:06 Premiere Date 1.3.18

The Impossible Flight

S45 E3 Length 1:53:30 Premiere Date 1.3.18

Black Hole Apocalypse

S45 E1 Length 1:52:46 Premiere Date 12.6.17

Prediction by the Numbers Prologue

Preview Length 01:12 Premiere Date 1.24.18

What is a P-Value?

Clip Length 04:12 Premiere Date 1.24.18

The Wisdom of the Crowds

Clip Length 03:38 Premiere Date 1.24.18

Does the Flu Shot Work?

Clip Length 02:14 Premiere Date 1.17.18

Predicting Landslides

Clip Length 01:34 Premiere Date 1.17.18

Can Tech Save Players’ Brains?

Clip Length 02:49 Premiere Date 2.3.18

Seeing Quantum with the Naked Eye

Clip Length 03:55 Premiere Date 2.6.18

What Is Blockchain?

Clip Length 03:17 Premiere Date 2.7.18

What Is Bitcoin?

Clip Length 02:14 Premiere Date 2.7.18

Wild Ways to Find a Mate

Clip Length 03:44 Premiere Date 2.14.18

What The Physics?! - Q&A

Clip Length 07:37 Premiere Date 2.14.18

The Biggest Puzzle in Physics

Clip Length 04:41 Premiere Date 2.21.18

Curling, A Great Physics Mystery

Clip Length 04:32 Premiere Date 2.28.18

Specials

Treasures Metals Eiffel Tower

Length 02:09 Premiere Date 12.9.16

A Labyrinth of Lava

Length 01:13 Premiere Date 11.2.15

Driving Dinosaur Diversity

Length 01:47 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Pangea

Length 00:56 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Making Granite From Volcanic Rock

Length 02:16 Premiere Date 10.22.15

A Massive Volcanic Eruption

Length 01:14 Premiere Date 10.22.15

From Mud to Rock

Length 01:36 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Finding Stromatolites

Length 01:23 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Stromatolites Were Kings

Length 01:05 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Ancient Life

Length 00:28 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Millions of Years Captured in Chalk

Length 01:17 Premiere Date 10.22.15

A Fourteen-Foot Fish From Kansas

Length 01:38 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Hell Creek Formation

Length 01:10 Premiere Date 10.22.15

No Dinosaurs Above the Line

Length 02:00 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Mammal Survivors

Length 01:40 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Dinosaur Fossils

Length 01:53 Premiere Date 10.22.15

King of Gore

Length 02:00 Premiere Date 10.22.15

Manhattan Skyline

Length 00:52 Premiere Date 10.21.15

New York's Mountains

Length 01:13 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Rock Time Capsules

Length 01:18 Premiere Date 10.21.15

The Sandstone Top of the Canyon

Length 01:15 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Fossil-Filled Limestone

Length 00:54 Premiere Date 10.21.15

The Grand Canyon's Oldest Rocks

Length 00:19 Premiere Date 10.21.15

From Lava to Land

Length 02:14 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Semi-Precious Pebbles

Length 00:57 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Five Steps of Volcanic Rock

Length 00:26 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Tearing North America Apart

Length 01:01 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Fossilized Sand Dunes

Length 01:15 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Volcanoes of Sand

Length 01:33 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Rockies 2.0

Length 02:00 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Manhattan Schist

Length 01:13 Premiere Date 10.21.15

Grand Canyon 4

Length 00:19 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Mendenhall Glacier

Length 02:51 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Monument Rocks 1

Length 01:18 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Monument Rocks 2

Length 01:48 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Exuma Cays 1

Length 01:26 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Exuma Cays 3

Length 00:28 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Exuma Cays 4

Length 03:22 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Gooseberry Falls 1

Length 00:57 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Gooseberry Falls 2

Length 00:24 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Gooseberry Falls 3

Length 01:06 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Gooseberry Falls 4

Length 01:01 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Mount Kilauea

Length 01:30 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Grand Canyon 1

Length 01:19 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Grand Canyon 2

Length 01:05 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Grand Canyon 3

Length 00:58 Premiere Date 8.2.15

Lethal Seas Excerpt 1

Length 04:11 Premiere Date 5.12.15

Lethal Seas Excerpt 2

Length 01:00 Premiere Date 5.12.15

Lethal Seas Excerpt 3

Length 00:35 Premiere Date 5.12.15

Lethal Seas Excerpt 4

Length 00:51 Premiere Date 5.12.15

The Mother of Hubble

Length 02:28 Premiere Date 4.14.15

Formation of a Typhoon

Length 01:34 Premiere Date 6.25.14

Flatfish Larvae

Length 00:51 Premiere Date 5.6.14

RNAi Explained

Length 01:47 Premiere Date 4.22.14

Dolphin Mirror

Length 03:18 Premiere Date 4.22.14

Dogs' Sense of Time

Length 01:28 Premiere Date 4.13.14

Cockatoo Excerpt

Length 01:30 Premiere Date 4.8.14

How Solar Cells Work

Length 00:33 Premiere Date 2.26.14

Solar Power's Promise

Length 00:51 Premiere Date 2.26.14

Microneedle

Length 01:41 Premiere Date 12.30.13

Non-Newtonian Gel

Length 01:00 Premiere Date 11.15.13

GM Plants

Length 01:27 Premiere Date 11.15.13

Soft-Story Buildings

Length 07:36 Premiere Date 11.13.13

Levitation

Length 00:50 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Superconductor

Length 01:47 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Animal Robot 1

Length 02:35 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Animal Robot 2

Length 02:02 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Therapeutic Hypothermia

Length 01:11 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Therapeutic Hypothermia 2

Length 01:07 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Therapeutic Hypothermia 3

Length 01:43 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Therapeutic Hypothermia 4

Length 02:01 Premiere Date 10.24.13

Swarming Robots

Length 01:31 Premiere Date 10.21.13

Sneak Peek: Making Stuff Wilder

Length 06:14 Premiere Date 10.21.13

Sail Wing

Length 01:02 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Hydrofoil

Length 01:01 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Chicken Feathers

Length 01:56 Premiere Date 10.19.13

KillaCycle

Length 00:48 Premiere Date 10.19.13

How Batteries Work

Length 00:49 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Muon Detection

Length 01:52 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Muons

Length 01:25 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Plants White

Length 02:11 Premiere Date 10.19.13

DNA Patch

Length 01:19 Premiere Date 10.19.13

DNA Vaccine

Length 00:38 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Earthquake Test

Length 02:03 Premiere Date 10.19.13

David Drives

Length 01:27 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Virus Battery

Length 02:21 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Shelley

Length 02:07 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Robot Arm

Length 00:56 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Elephant Arm

Length 01:22 Premiere Date 10.19.13

FinGripper

Length 00:55 Premiere Date 10.19.13

Hagfish Defense

Length 01:36 Premiere Date 10.17.13

Slime Clothes

Length 01:00 Premiere Date 10.17.13

Pitcher Plant

Length 01:48 Premiere Date 10.17.13

SLIPS

Length 01:01 Premiere Date 10.17.13

Hagfish

Length 00:51 Premiere Date 10.17.13

New York City One Year Later: Telecommunications

Length 03:14 Premiere Date 10.16.13

Sneak Peek: Making Stuff Faster

Length 05:06 Premiere Date 10.15.13

David's Race

Length 01:28 Premiere Date 10.15.13

Steffen's Plan

Length 01:59 Premiere Date 10.15.13

Traveling Salesman

Length 01:21 Premiere Date 10.15.13

Eye Robot

Length 01:51 Premiere Date 10.10.13

Corkscrew Robot

Length 00:32 Premiere Date 10.10.13

Slow Goldfish

Length 01:39 Premiere Date 10.10.13

Bee Toxin

Length 01:31 Premiere Date 10.10.13

Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Length 03:36 Premiere Date 10.7.13

Invisibility Cloak

Length 01:22 Premiere Date 9.24.13

Shape Memory Alloys

Length 00:32 Premiere Date 9.8.13

Jellyfish

Length 00:38 Premiere Date 9.8.13

Bird Wings

Length 01:56 Premiere Date 9.8.13

Shrinking Chips

Length 01:06 Premiere Date 9.5.13

Pizza Transistor

Length 01:34 Premiere Date 9.5.13

Graphene

Length 01:11 Premiere Date 9.5.13

Wheat Straw Plastic

Length 01:04 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Solar Leaves

Length 00:53 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Battle Jacket

Length 01:49 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Oobleck

Length 00:40 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Magnetic Oobleck

Length 00:54 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Life-Saving Non-Newtonian Fluids

Length 01:43 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Silicon Transistors

Length 00:50 Premiere Date 8.29.13

Starling 8

Length 00:44 Premiere Date 7.15.13

sandy-raw-1-2

Length 00:04 Premiere Date 7.8.13

sandy-raw-5-1

Length 01:02 Premiere Date 7.8.13

Chemotherapy Goes Small

Length 01:17 Premiere Date 7.1.13

The Making of a Cloud Old

Length 03:10 Premiere Date 6.30.13

Why So Many Cloud Types?

Length 03:35 Premiere Date 6.30.13

Clouds and Weather

Length 03:21 Premiere Date 6.30.13

Severe Storms

Length 03:37 Premiere Date 6.30.13

The Climate Wild Card

Length 03:02 Premiere Date 6.30.13

Life on Europa?

Length 02:25 Premiere Date 6.9.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_03

Length 01:41 Premiere Date 5.29.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_04

Length 01:43 Premiere Date 5.29.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_05

Length 01:04 Premiere Date 5.29.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_06

Length 00:40 Premiere Date 5.29.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_07

Length 03:07 Premiere Date 5.29.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_01

Length 00:35 Premiere Date 5.28.13

CloudLab_Megastorm_02

Length 00:31 Premiere Date 5.28.13

What Made the 1918 Flu So Deadly?

Length 01:28 Premiere Date 5.13.13

How the 1918 Flu Infected People

Length 00:25 Premiere Date 5.13.13

Fertilizing the Amazon

Length 03:27 Premiere Date 4.21.13

Flu Probabilities

Length 01:53 Premiere Date 4.16.13

Rare Earth Elements

Length 04:17 Premiere Date 4.1.13

CHNOPS: Ingredients for Life

Length 02:36 Premiere Date 3.12.13

Electromagnetic Spectrum

Length 00:44 Premiere Date 2.28.13

MODIS Sensor

Length 00:26 Premiere Date 2.28.13

Solving the Storage Problem

Length 02:26 Premiere Date 10.25.12

Putting Energy to Use Old

Length 02:14 Premiere Date 10.8.12

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